Confronting the Rankings Decline

How Australian universities can survive the perfect storm through research focus

Australian universities are facing a new paradigm around rankings performance

As the higher education sector faces growing pressures from international student caps and a sluggish economy, Australian universities are confronting a significant challenge: the decline in rankings, particularly among GO8 universities in the latest 2025 Times Higher Education (THE) data. ​

In this paper, SPP explores how Australian universities can optimise their rankings performance in an environment of increasingly scarce resources. Through analysing the latest rankings trends, we explain how the “easy wins” around optimising rankings have been largely exhausted and identify the key levers which hold the greatest potential for driving improvement. Our insights highlight the strategic value of building focused pockets of research excellence which can play a major role in bolstering international reputation.​

Key Takeaways​

Financial Strain from Student Caps: International student caps will drive reduced university revenues in the coming years, constraining capacity to sustain or enhance research investment (typically subsidised by teaching margins). This financial strain will challenge the ability of Australian universities to compete globally in rankings which are heavily influenced by research driven metrics. ​

Exhaustion of Traditional Ranking Levers: Both GO8 and Emerging universities have historically leveraged the rankings categories of Research Quality (dominated by citations measures), International Outlook, and Industry to drive up rankings. However, these levers are reaching their limits. To unlock further rankings growth, Australian universities will now need to focus on the traditionally “less popular” rankings categories of Teaching Quality and Research Environment.​

Strategic Allocation of Resources: Decisions around the allocation of resources across research activities will be driven by a myriad factors, including research strategy and growth priorities, and the broader institutional operating context. The relative priority of rankings performance within this framework will differ by institution. However, given that major ranking methodologies (THE, QS, ARWU) heavily weigh research metrics, and the synergistic relationship between rankings performance and university performance, universities cannot afford to ignore the rankings implications of their research investment decisions.​

Focus on Research Excellence and Niche Strengths: Universities are facing the challenge of optimising rankings performance with less resource and should consider deploying an investment strategy targeted at building focused pockets of research excellence. Our analysis indicates that the rankings performance measures where there is greatest potential for further improvement are closely linked to institutional awareness and reputation within specific research fields (these measures are generally informed by qualitative peer-based surveys). Investments in building prominence with niche fields is a viable strategy to impact these reputation-based measures. Other avenues for performance improvement are available but are challenging and expensive to activate.​

Navigating New Metrics and Ranking Dynamics: Ranking organisations continuously monitor and evolve their methodologies to improve quality and to combat against system “gaming”. For instance, employability and sustainability metrics have been recently added to the QS rankings methodology. Universities should ensure they keep abreast of these changes. ​

Managing rankings performance is a sector-wide priority that has just gotten harder​

Why University rankings matter

• Enhancing Reputation and Attracting Talent: Maximising university rankings is a strategic imperative for institutions aiming to enhance their reputation and increase their appeal to prospective students. This, in turn, drives growth and competitiveness in a global education market.
• Driving Student Demand and Revenue: University rankings are an important driver of student demand – this is particularly so for international students who bring in proportionately much greater revenue than domestic students. A strong ranking position can therefore directly impact enrolment numbers and financial performance.
• Sustaining Financial Health and Research Investment: Rankings bolster financial stability by supporting higher teaching margins, largely fuelled by international enrolments. This enables continued investment in research capabilities, which are essential for maintaining and improving ranking.

Implications of International Student Caps

• The Australian Government has introduced measures to limit international student enrolments, including stricter visa policies, high visa fees, and curbs on visa ‘hopping’.
• These changes have already caused a significant 40% decline in approved student visas between January and April 2024, potentially reducing arrivals by over 70,000 students.
• The new international student caps, set to take effect in 2025, aim to return international enrolments to pre-Covid levels. While GO8 universities are significantly affected, many Emerging universities will also see substantial reductions in international student numbers.
• The financial impact of these caps is severe, with expected revenue losses of $4-6 billion over the next three years.
• To manage these losses, universities will likely need to reduce costs, including cutting teaching staff and scaling back research investments.
• These reductions threaten the quality of research output and could compromise universities’ ability to maintain or improve their ranking positions.

International student caps will reduce resources available to invest in research capability

Most universities have exhausted the use of citations as a lever to drive rankings growth

SPP has analysed the rankings performance of GO8 universities and Emerging Australian universities to consider how to respond in this cost constrained environment.* The analysis adopts the Times Higher Education (THE) rankings system as a proxy, noting that other prominent rankings systems (e.g. QS, ARWU) employ relatively similar methodologies. THE rankings are determined from a range of performance metrics that can be grouped into 5 primary categories: Research Quality, Teaching, Research Environment, International Outlook and Industry. Each of these categories are weighted differently (see below).

Our intent in undertaking this analysis was to understand how Australian universities have achieved rankings outcomes based on the rankings methodology. The analysis sheds light on which rankings levers have been most heavily utilised to drive rankings performances, and where there remains opportunities to further boost rankings. The results of this analysis are summarised below.

Both Go8 and Emerging universities have now largely maximised their rankings through the “easy wins”. Analysis of the THE rankings data shows that a very large proportion of existing rankings score improvement has come through driving up citations-related metrics; weighted scores within the Research Quality category are now close to the maximum possible score of 30. Further increases in citations-related metrics are likely to require significant additional investment to compete at the highest levels of global research but yield only a marginal rankings improvement.

The Teaching and Research Environment rankings categories provide the most headroom for further growth. Combined, these categories represent over 80% of remaining growth potential (noting that this analysis is based on averages, and universities should evaluate their individual performance to understand their specific position).

Further rankings growth can be achieved by focusing on boosting reputation

Based on our analysis of rankings performance against each rankings category, and considering the sub-metrics that contribute to the areas where there remains the greatest “headroom” for further growth, we conclude that Australian universities can focus their efforts in three major areas to achieve further rankings gains; improving teaching and research reputation, optimising academic and staff student ratios, and increasing institutional and research income.

To further improve rankings, universities should focus on enhancing their teaching and research reputation, which offers the highest growth potential. Among the three strategies outlined, boosting reputation is likely the most cost-effective and impactful. While optimising staff-student ratios and increasing income require significant investment, creating pockets of research excellence can generate a halo effect and build awareness, elevating an institution’s broader reputation with relatively lower costs (supported by appropriate marketing).

Strategic re-prioritisation of investment and effort is imperative to maintain ranking growth momentum

Building up pockets of research excellence is a viable strategy to drive ranking impact with limited resources

Teaching and Research Reputation metrics are driven by the score that each university receives during the Academic Reputation Survey (ARS)* which is conducted annually by Times Higher Education. A range of potential mechanism exist for universities to improve their reputation and achieve a higher score in the ARS. based on our analysis of the ARS methodology.

It is increasingly critical for universities to align their ranking strategy with their growth ambitions

One way to ensure the viability of your ranking growth strategy is to develop a clear understanding of your university’s ranking trajectory and identify and benchmark key performance drivers against immediate ranking peers. This work is necessarily to pinpoint key opportunities for further growth.

These opportunities must then be evaluated within the broader strategic context of the university and balanced against other priorities.

One thing is for certain, the growth (or maintenance) in international academic rankings will remain a critical issue for many Australian universities. How ready is your university to respond?

How we can help

• Provide insights into current ranking performance, including competitors benchmarking
• Create robust ranking growth strategy to achieve realistic goals
• Develop focused research strategies
• Help to prioritise effort and investment to maximise the university’s research outcomes and ranking impact, aligned with the university’s broader strategic goals